Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state among our ‘polls’, which helps to account for outlier polls and to keep the polling in its proper context. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages. How is this site different from other compilations of polls like Real Clear Politics? There are several principal ways that the FiveThityEight methodology differs from other poll compilations:įirstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster’s historical track record, the poll’s sample size, and the recentness of the poll. Most narrowly, to give you the best possible objective assessment of the likely outcome of upcoming elections. What is the mission of this website? Most broadly, to accumulate and analyze polling and political data in way that is informed, accurate and attractive. What is the significance of the number 538? 538 is the number of electors in the electoral college. The other contributor to this website, Sean Quinn, lives in Washington, DC. For additional background, please see here or here. Who are you? My name is Nate Silver and I live in Chicago.
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